German Elections 2021

Jark

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not just in some polls but in a majority of polls. they came fifth in 2017!

Merkel stepping down will probably be the death of the CDU since they're plagued by in fighting and racist old men. so that's good!

love the idea of the Greens getting in and Germany keeping it femme :disco: but how much climate impact they can have in a coalition gov remains to be seen.
 
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Apocalypt Flyer

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Do we know who's representing the CDU?

Armin Laschet. :zombie: :zombie:

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Apocalypt Flyer

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I'm worried about what's going to happen in the post-MUTTI era but honestly, at this point, the Greens taking over as the strongest party is something I could live with.
 

Dark Carnival

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I'm hoping the Green take-over will spill over France, helped by the momentum the Greens seem to have gained here over the last couple of years.
 

Jark

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what's the general FEELING in Germany about Mutti's reign ending, Apoca? will she be looked back on fondly?
 

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My limited understanding is that the German Greens are quite a different proposition to the UK Greens, but yes, an exciting prospect!

With Angela Merkel being Europe's long-suffering voice of reason this past decade, it's easy to forget that she's not actually particularly progressive. But she's certainly going to go down as one of the great diplomats of her era. (Not that she has much competition!)
 

Apocalypt Flyer

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what's the general FEELING in Germany about Mutti's reign ending, Apoca? will she be looked back on fondly?

To be honest, I felt there was a real sense of goodwill and "don't know what you got until it's almost gone" in 2020. She steered Germany through the first couple of months of Covid with calm and she marked such a stark contrast to the buffoonery from Trump and also Johnson in the face of real crisis.

But 2021 hasn't been too kind to her IMO - unfortunately, there's only so much she can do about it. She's got to deal with all the quarreling and bickering from the federal ministers and the last 2-3 months have been so poor in messaging, also from her party and she's kinda been sand-bagged by that if you ask me.
 

Jark

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My limited understanding is that the German Greens are quite a different proposition to the UK Greens, but yes, an exciting prospect!

With Angela Merkel being Europe's long-suffering voice of reason this past decade, it's easy to forget that she's not actually particularly progressive. But she's certainly going to go down as one of the great diplomats of her era. (Not that she has much competition!)
Perhaps there's an argument to be made that Germany wasn't open to or ready for progressive politics (this is a centre-right country with sizeable neo-Nazi groups after all, and a majority Christian electorate) and that Mutti's brand of incremental change was both tactical and the most Germany was ready for. A country where, for example, even in liberal industries like TV/cinema it wasn't until this year that actors started coming out in numbers. I think history will look back on her leadership quite kindly. She knew how to gauge the temperature of the country, and when it was the moment to ignore public opinion in favour of doing the right thing (the immigration saga) and face the consequences later.

I don't believe she's self-serving, and that's a rare quality indeed in any politician representing a large, wealthy and influential nation.
 

Ag

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So our Ang is on the way out. I haven't been following so much, but I suspect a very dull man is about to take over.
 

Penelope

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Although as it goes, there's more of a chance than you'd think that BIG ANG might still be in in 2022.

If a two party government isn't possible (the Social Democrats, Greens and libertarian FDP - think the Lib Dems at their Orange Book pro-austerity WORST - are currently the favoured coalition at the end of it all, but another Grand Coalition between the Social Democrats and the CDU but swapping which party has the Chancellor, or a Red-Red-Green tie-up with the radical left Die Linke, who are descended from the East German Communist Party, are both possibilities) then coalition negotiations are likely to take *ages*. Not least as the FDP don't really agree a huge deal with the SPD & Greens' agendas, and would only really be forced into an agreement suitable to the SPD's membership (quite left-dominated) by the prospect of the SPD & Greens going in with Die Linke instead.

Big Ang's latest term only started in March 2018 - even though the election was in Sept 2017 - because negotiations took so long last time and involved the FDP stropping out halfway through because they couldn't come to an agreement with the CDU and the Greens (so Ang had to revive a Grand Coalition with the SPD which the SPD had ruled out before that election), to give you an idea :eyes:
 

Apocalypt Flyer

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As for the Bundestagswahl - whatever the outcome / coalition, I'm borderline fine with it as long as we don't get Kanzler Laschet :zombie:
 

Madison

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I’ve only been hearing the traffic light and Jamaica coalitions as likely outcomes. Has a Grand Coalition ever been ruled out?
 

Apocalypt Flyer

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We are literally gonna be here for a long time.

76% turnout is decent tho and no gains for the far right twats from the AFD. Good.
 

Ag

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The most likely outcome is SPD/ Green/ FDP (with The Left potentially tagged on) no?

I come to this conclusion based on a full 5 minutes of research.
 

Apocalypt Flyer

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I’ve only been hearing the traffic light and Jamaica coalitions as likely outcomes. Has a Grand Coalition ever been ruled out?

I think Grand Coalition might have a majority with additional seats.

But I also don't see how a Grand Coalition without Merkel is going to move anywhere at all.
 

Madison

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Possible outcomes with majorities:

Traffic light: SPD / FDP / Green
Jamaica: CDU-CSU / FDP / Green
Grand Coalition: CDU-CSU / SPD

When looking at the percentages, treat most of the ‘8% others’ as wasted votes that won’t turn into seats.
 

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