Scottish politics thread (including 2021 Holyrood elections and potential IndyRef2)

Kratz

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If that's meant to be Yorkshire, I don't think they have included any of actual Yorkshire within the border. I had assumed that there was somehow a Northumberland independence movement and they had forgotten Yorkshire was a thing.
It looks like the white rose, but I could be wrong (but also agreed, there’s no actual Yorkshire in there segment).
 

ZenGiraffe

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20220408_223247.jpg

Amazing piece of camerawork today
 

ZenGiraffe

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The push for a second Scottish Independence referendum launched properly today, with the Scottish Government planning on publishing a number of papers over the coming weeks/months on the various issues that will be at the centre of the debate.




It doesn't yet seem like they've said what they intend to do when Westminster doesn't grant a Section 30 order though, which for me remains the most interesting bit of IndyRef2 atm.
 

octophone

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It doesn't yet seem like they've said what they intend to do when Westminster doesn't grant a Section 30 order though, which for me remains the most interesting bit of IndyRef2 atm.

If he thought it would keep him in power, Johnson would launch an Independence For England campaign and invade us.
 

VoR

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What's the current polling like on Scottish public opinion on Independence?
 

ZenGiraffe

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What's the current polling like on Scottish public opinion on Independence?
Generally, Yes a bit below No. Yes seems to be between 45%-50% with Don't Knows taken out. Which is a good starting point because it was around ~30% when the last referendum campaign kicked off, though I think there are less people likely to change their mind than before.

However, I'm very curious about how the young are being dealt with in polls. The franchise will be 16+, and are probably being undercounted in the current polling. And they did turn out fairly well last time round, so my feeling is that it polls are slightly underestimating yes and that it is much closer to knife edge.
 

Ag

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The polling seems to suggest the peak YES period was between 2019 and 2021, with a soft decline since then, with NO leading since.

Since there's already been a campaign in living memory, I presume a lot of minds are already made up and starting positions will probably be more reflective of a final result.

I am pro Scottish independence, but I don't think it's gonna happen this time.
 

Madison

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The attention the Northern Ireland border is getting can’t be much help.

Once Scotland is back in the EU, does it envisage full border controls for goods at the English-Scottish border? Presumably it wasn’t an issue in 2014.
 

ZenGiraffe

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The attention the Northern Ireland border is getting can’t be much help.

Once Scotland is back in the EU, does it envisage full border controls for goods at the UK-Scottish border? Presumably it wasn’t an issue in 2014.
Yeah, wasn't an issue in 2014. I imagine No will argue they will have no option but a full border, and Yes will argue something along the lines of coming to a similar arrangement that exists between NI and Ireland. Which of course would be impossible under the current Westminster Government, as they wouldn't want it (and are trying to break it) and the EU wouldn't trust them regardless. But may just about be plausible if Scotland is negotiating with a Labour Westminster Government.
 

octophone

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I can see why people don't want it now. But I think if people are waiting for "things to settle down", they'll be waiting a long time because the Tories are in the business of creating crisis, not solving it. The Tories want us to feel there's "too much" going on so that we can never pause to pay proper attention to anything. They've played the "now is not the time" card firmly of late and they never want there to be a time for anything that does not suit their convenience or their overseas bank accounts.
 

ZenGiraffe

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It doesn't yet seem like they've said what they intend to do when Westminster doesn't grant a Section 30 order though, which for me remains the most interesting bit of IndyRef2 atm.

Seems like it is heading the way of a softer advisory question to give the Scottish Government a mandate to negotiate with Westminster, whereas the previous referendum allowed for the legal process of independence to start immediately in the event of a yes vote.

Sadly, this is the boring path. The interesting one would be to test the theory of having the legal competence to overturn the Union with England act passed by the Scottish Parliament in 1707.
 

ZenGiraffe

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So she wouldn't even mention healthcare or education? Because if she does then it's not a single issue election, is it?
I assume it would be along the lines of "An independent Scotland will do this on x, which you will get if you vote SNP"
 

Kratz

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If Scotland won't vote for independence at the present moment and context of time, when will it?
 

ZenGiraffe

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Is that any different to every other campaign they've run? (I don't know the answer to that, it may be no!)
Not especially, just the explicit claiming of a mandate to negotiate and implement Scottish Independence if they win a majority of the vote share in Scotland.
 

dmlaw

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Is that any different to every other campaign they've run? (I don't know the answer to that, it may be so!)
In previous campaigns, they have always argued that if you like the policies but don't want independence then you should still vote for them. Presumably, in a single issue independence campaign, they would be specifically encouraging those who don't support independence to vote for someone else/
 

Iguana

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Not especially, just the explicit claiming of a mandate to negotiate and implement Scottish Independence if they win a majority of the vote share in Scotland.

In previous campaigns, they have always argued that if you like the policies but don't want independence then you should still vote for them. Presumably, in a single issue independence campaign, they would be specifically encouraging those who don't support independence to vote for someone else/
I see! Many thank yous, that makes sense
 

Ag

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How does that compare a comparably far away point in the last IndyRef lead up?
Based on the graphs I've seen it was about 55%-35%.

That said, and I've said it before, I don't see polling moving as dramatically as it did in 13/14. The debate has been ongoing and the last vote was within living memory.
 

octophone

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You can tell there's a genuine fear this time by the scale and manner of the attacks on Nicola Sturgeon. This morning, the Metro mocks her for having an umbrella with her.

God forbid she attempts to eat a bacon sandwich in public.
 
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Soldi

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I worry this could end up getting very messy thanks to Boris & Co. :(
 

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