The By-elections Thread - 2019-2024 edition

Kratz

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There is a non-local by-election occurring today. The North Yorkshire PCC election :disco:
Ah yes my folks got a leaflet. Caused by the resignation of the incumbent for some truly horrible comments following Sarah Everard’s murder.

Should be a comfortable Conservative hold in the truest bluest part of the North but who knows (the turnout might be in single digits!).
 

Penelope

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10% swing - that'll do.

34% turnout apparently. 14% would have been horrendous!
 

Penelope

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What’s REFUK?

I guess it’s not something as exciting as fucking someone a second time
Reform UK - the changed name of the Brexit Party. It's led by the guy who was the candidate in Bexley, Richard Tice (long-time Brexit loudmouth who used to be in the property industry and who was one of Nigel Farage's few trusted confidants).
 

Diddy

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Reform UK - the changed name of the Brexit Party. It's led by the guy who was the candidate in Bexley, Richard Tice (long-time Brexit loudmouth who used to be in the property industry and who was one of Nigel Farage's few trusted confidants).

Ohh so it’s about fucking the country a second time?
 

Penelope

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I’d say there is a good chance North Shropshire will go LD on that basis.
The other thing that's quite interesting about this result - and the ones in other by-elections in this parliament (even Hartlepool!) - is that the Labour, Lib Dem, and Green vote looks like it's getting very efficient at rallying behind the most likely challenger to the Tories whenever an election comes up, with the other two getting squeezed right down.

Very positive for North Shropshire, and also for the anti-Tory challengers in general (not quite as purist as the Navalny-esque 'smart voting' strategy @Loufoque mentioned earlier in the thread as obv you're probably not gonna get Reform UK voters behind any of the left parties, but certainly not far off)
 

Alex

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So the Tories clearly are rattled, Johnson visited North Shropshire and got the candidate's name wrong !
He should hang around longer, will hopefully lose them even more votes :disco:
 
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Alex

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23FD0E65-5008-4291-BEB1-2655B422AD08.jpeg

:o
 

cwej

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The other thing that's quite interesting about this result - and the ones in other by-elections in this parliament (even Hartlepool!) - is that the Labour, Lib Dem, and Green vote looks like it's getting very efficient at rallying behind the most likely challenger to the Tories whenever an election comes up, with the other two getting squeezed right down.

Very positive for North Shropshire, and also for the anti-Tory challengers in general (not quite as purist as the Navalny-esque 'smart voting' strategy @Loufoque mentioned earlier in the thread as obv you're probably not gonna get Reform UK voters behind any of the left parties, but certainly not far off)

They are in the by-elections. But when it comes to a General Election they all get fucking GREEDY and can't see the wood for the trees.
 

Alex

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I'm sorry, I don't understand betting markets (I'm homosexual), so what is this showing? Are they thinking a Lib Dem victory is becoming more likely?
Yes ! Was 5 to 1 a few weeks ago !
 

Kratz

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Still a likely Tory hold then
There isn’t enough data out there to move the betting markets so dramatically that the Tories aren’t favourites to win in a seat like this, but the anecdotes on the ground suggest it looks bad. I think it is gone myself.
 

Indie

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That's not exactly a lot of money.

Still, amazing if it did happen. Doesn't seem like the Tories have lost that area of the country since Liberals won a by-election in 1904.
 
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Lucille

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What great news to wake up to! I was expecting a slight win not a landslide :disco:
 

Kratz

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That's very sad news (looks to have been sudden). Poor Harriet and family.

Expect a Labour hold (but a year ago the Tories would have fancied their chances - 3.6k majority).
 

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