The War in Ukraine

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With an estimated 100,000 Russian troops on the Ukrainian border, diplomats scrambling to avert WAR and the US warning of a SEVERE response. Will Russia invade, will we all DIE?
 
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‘Lock and load, girls, the Russkies are coming’
 
I rather suspect he won't invade. He's just swinging his balls at the moment. Putin is smart enough to know that direct conflict with the USA would be a disaster and could inflame all kinds of geopolitical conflicts
 
He does a LOT of ball-swinging but this does feel a wee bit different for some reason.

Mind you, it's not like he has to please an electorate.
 
Yes, but probably on the basis that russians have been subject to an incursion inside the Ukrainian border and proceed from there. Diplomacy can only do so much here if Russia (1) wants to annex eastern Ukraine or (2) at least destabilise it enough to undermine or remove the pro-West / NATO government.

Lots being said about NATO inevitably, but what Europe does is more interesting. There’s a good amount of cohesion between UK, France, Spain and the Baltic states but Germany already clearly feeling a need to look both ways on this (if only so the gas doesn’t get turned off) isn’t particularly encouraging.
 
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One of my best friends' family lives not super far from the border. Understandably, she's so so anxious over this. Has been for ages but it's been heightened again these past few weeks.
 
Ag said:
Putin is smart enough to know that direct conflict with the USA would be a disaster and could inflame all kinds of geopolitical conflicts
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What direct conflict? Like SHIT is Joe Biden going to deploy troops to Ukraine! :D
 
The thing that swings it for me is that Putin's at the point where he's doing stuff that runs up real costs - getting all the logistics chains in place, moving battalions all the way over from the Far East. It's all a lot to do for just a "PSYCHE!" moment.
 
From a historical (and geopolitical) perspective, Russia’s behaviour is understandable and even necessary. Their rivals are encircling them and Ukraine (and Belarus) have always been considered as part of their own country.
What they’re doing is however only turning Europe against them.
 
"Ukraine have always been considered part of their own country"

Apart from the last THIRTY YEARS after they voted overwhelmingly for independence, to say nothing else?! :D
 
Yes I can’t quite understand how anyone here would be PRO-RUSSIA in all this :D
 
The fact murder is against the law doesn't tend to change the mind of murderers. It hardly makes their shit "understandable and even necessary"!!!

Especially when you consider Russia signed an international treaty saying they'd respect Ukraine's borders when Ukraine gave back the Soviet-era nukes!
 
Penelope said:
The fact murder is against the law doesn't tend to change the mind of murderers. It hardly makes their shit "understandable and even necessary"!!!

Especially when you consider Russia signed an international treaty saying they'd respect Ukraine's borders when Ukraine gave back the Soviet-era nukes!
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Considering that the current regime wants us to go back to the days of Yalta or even Tsarist Russia, I doubt they care much about what Yeltsin and others did in ”a moment of weakness”. :)
 
Penelope said:
What direct conflict? Like SHIT is Joe Biden going to deploy troops to Ukraine! :D
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I was thinking bigger picture. The Baltic States are all in NATO as are several countries that border Ukraine, and are all vulnerable if Putin wants to go further.

Do we think he actually wants Ukraine territory or just to install a pro Russia government?
 
Diddy said:
I don’t think there’s anything wrong with trying to understand where the Russians are coming from - the question is WILL they invade. I don’t think anyone here is trying to suggest they SHOULD invade
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It’s only a reasonable thing to do in a discussion; wasn’t even trying to be the devil’s advocate, just stating their point, but it never seems to work in Moopy. You’re suddenly Hitler.
 
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Ag said:
Do we think he actually wants Ukraine territory or just to install a pro Russia government?
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I think the latter is the short term goal, but the long term goal is to get back at least Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan.
 
The thing I don’t understand is - Russia can probably take Ukraine, but how on earth do they expect to hold it?

Annexing areas with a large Russian-identifying population is one thing, but that’s a lot of very, very angry people to oppress…
 
I mean honestly, this couldn't be a more open-shut case of dogshit imperialism. They don't have a 'point' at all. They just have a sad, sad little man who is willing to murder and ruin the lives of millions so he can feel like he owns a bigger empire. The sooner he dies, the better.
 
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