2024 US Presidential Election

funky said:
His attacks on Latino immigrants is putting Florida in play. Some (but not all) polls have moved Florida to a toss-up.

He’ll still most likely win it but it’s a reminder that his campaign just isn’t working - he’s going after the base while she’s going after the middle.

Fox News has Michigan going Dem lean for the first time. If true it does of course bring it back to her only needing PA. The money they must be spending there…
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I’m sure Florida is still going to be a toss up after tonight :eyes:
 
I think for Florida and Texas the big hopes lie in the senate races.

Ted Cruz in Texas would be a particularly delicious scalping.
 
While still a toss-up and very close, Harris has MOVED AHEAD in North Carolina on the aggregated polling. :o It's still almost a tie and given Trump's tendency to overperfom on election day, it's not enough to consider it a bonus for the democrats, but it does represent another continued shift in polling behavior from right to left.
 
Mostly 270towin, but then I sometimes deep dive into the individual state or polling platforms from links on there or the likes of CNN, NYT etc.

As you probably know, often the current polling is useless without context - for instance when you look at Florida practically entering toss-up territory, it suggests he's losing ground there but he's actually not - his % has been going up as well (probably since Kennedy dropped out?) so while it's good she's gained ground (probably with latinos who don't eat pets) it doesn't mean she's gaining on taking the state.
 
Speaking of 538 I just noticed they have it nationwide at 48/45 which is interesting - that's the first change I've seen as it was static at 47/44 for what felt like a couple of weeks... while she might not have bounced from the debate, he hasn't bounced from Kennedy dropping out.
 
The fact the Democrats have played this so well, and Trump has played this so very badly and it’s neck and neck.

YOU GOTTA LAUGH!

:hostage:
 
Lucille said:
The fact the Democrats have played this so well, and Trump has played this so very badly and it’s neck and neck.

YOU GOTTA LAUGH!

:hostage:
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I have an American aunt from Pennsylvania who is a dreadful Trump supporter (my mother didn’t know she existed until she was about 50 and I’ve only met her twice). Spoke to her on the phone last week for the first time in 20 years as it was mum’s birthday and I was there.

She’s SO STUPID, she even mentioned getting together next year by holidaying in Israel. I said “oh I’m not sure about Israel”, to which she replied “Nooo, don’t believe everything you may have read. It’s all lies”

I quickly passed the phone back.
 
She’s a Russian asset that shows up every 4 years to cause trouble for Democrats. After the election she disappears again until the next cycle.
 
Trying not to get too optimistic but 538 has all of the 7 toss-up states now in the blue column - that’s a first. Albeit, the likes of Arizona and Georgia are the tiniest of margins. PA still painfully low at 2% but Wisconsin and Michigan now above 4% and (for them at least) officially “leaning Democrats”.

She is, at the very least, maintaining her thin lead.
 
I mean, it's starting to look, dare I say, comfortable

Social media is an absolute shit storm though. The bots, spiders, trolls and die hard Trumpers are out in full force, taking over every liberal or pro-Harris comment or content. It's ugly.
 
Yeah the margin of error is still too tight for me not to be nervous. On these numbers I think the liklihood is that Harris probably loses Pennsylvania.

 
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