2024 US Presidential Election

New York Times average of polls has her four points ahead in Pennsylvania but deadlock nationally

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It really isn't. Harris is almost certain to win the popular vote, but it's not comfortable in the slightest that she'll win the electoral college

I meant her momentum. We’ve seen the maths regarding the electoral college, it’s still wide open. Plus it’s weeks away. Donnie can squeeze in a couple more assassination attempts before then.

Another encouraging sign is the number of paths to victory. Trump was WAY ahead in this when Harris first took over, and now she’s leading on number of ways to win. That’s also an extraordinary turnaround.
 
Remember that the 538 model is different this time around and is untested on a presidential election, so don't get your hopes up based on it

You can also break it down by poll sample.

There are only 2 national polls that had Trump winning (by 1%) in the last week.

Both by the same polling company, with a sample of 800 each. Rubbish.

Another poll had 11,000 respondents - that one had Harris up by 5.
 
I still listen to and love the 538 podcast, but they don’t even acknowledge their model on it anymore, so not a great sign for its validity
 
Anyone who connects words constantly with “look, y’know, right, okay, I mean” is a sociopath. ISWIS.
 
If Donald Trump a character in Animal Crossing, who would he be? And the same question applied to Kamala Harris.
 
Everyone has a device in their pocket where you can pull up a picture of him in about 4 seconds! Mama, let’s research!
 
I guess her brother Randy (who manages her) is an anti-vaxx Trump supporter so that probably adds to it
 

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