The state of the Union... (Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales...)

C’est la VoR

C’est la VoR

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This is likely to be a big factor over the coming years, so here's a quick overview of the state of the Union after last night...

Scotland

48 SNP (+13)
6 Conservatives (-7)
4 Liberal Democrats (+0)
1 Labour (-6)

Clear victory for SNP and an embarassing, if widely predicted, Labour wipeout with the Conservatives also hit hard. The message is clear, Scotland wants out of this shitshow, and who can blame them? How on earth they get Boris to give them a referendum is another matter. This could get very, very ugly...

Northern Ireland

8 DUP (-2)
7 Sinn Féin (+0)
2 SDLP (+2)
1 Alliance (+1)

Northern Ireland remains in their state of perennial deadlock, but for the first time there are more Irish nationalist MPs than unionist (SDLP are Irish nationalist, Alliance are neutral). There'll probably be renewed efforts to return to power-sharing but the DUP's influence on UK politics will be diminished, and Boris' Brexit deal selling them out could cause major discontent...

Wales

22 Labour (-6)
14 Conservatives (+7)
4 Plaid Cymru (+0)
0 Liberal Democrats (-1)

There's less appetite for Welsh independence than there is in Scotland and Ireland so less to report here, beyond another bruising set of results for Labour, with the Conservatives gaining seats predominantly in the North. I guess they'll be Montenegro to our Serbia in 5 years time. :)
 
The useless cunt will send the troops in if we get too narky. He'll see it as his Falklands. Being a spoilt brat, he'll probably deliberately cut everything he can in Scotland just to teach us a lesson.
 
God, I am so ANGRY right now. Which stage of grief is this?
 
I said it last night, but look at what's happening in Catalonia right now for a fairly plausible glimpse at how this could play out.
 
If things remain as they are, I think it will come down to the Scottish elections in 2021 where the SNP and Greens will campaign on a ticket of independence. I don’t think Boris will be able to deny them a referendum if there’s an overall majority for it in the Scottish Parliament at that point.
 
Ag said:
With such a swollen majority he can do what he likes.
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Oh yes, of course there is that. I just don’t think politically it would be wise to do that. And if he does, then I think the Catalonian situation could very well be where we end up.
 
Ag said:
With such a swollen majority he can do what he likes.
Click to expand...

Exactly. When they had 56 seats is 2015, the Tories found them completely ignorable - in fact, Cameron brought in EVEL to shut them out further.
 
Keeping the Union together is going to be Boris' biggest challenge this term. Nobody, especially a Tory, wants to be the PM that oversaw the disintegration of the United Kingdom.

I hope it means he'll pursue a softer Brexit and bank on relative economic stability for the next couple of years to give Scottish remain a fighting chance of winning again when he does concede to a referendum.
 
The one possible ray of light is that it may reduce the impact of the ERG. Not that I have a clue what the make up of the new MPs are, but a soft Brexit is possibly a bit more likely now. Although a seriously nasty hard Brexit is also a bit more likely now.
 
Ag said:
I'm trademarking 'Free Nicola Sturgeon' as we speak.
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Sturgeon would flee overseas. It'll be Mhairi Black that will do the time.

And Alex Salmond, although not over independence.
 
I can’t believe two people could find her attractive.
 
You know what some men are like about women with power.
 
Big Independence march is getting traction for 11th January. I'm going. Need to make a sign.
 
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