When will the next General Election happen?
- Thread starter Jark
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ZenGiraffe
Who is SHE though?
It is not in the interest of anyone who could make a GE happen to have one, so I think they will ride it out to the last possible moment.
Tisch
Spare potatoes
Who will take over if she resigns? The deputy? (Is that Coffey?) Will there be another leadership campaign? Does anyone WANT the job? Will the campaign be such a shambles that they HAVE to call an election? Who would even call it if Liz is gone. Are there precedents for ANY of this (i.e. having a leadership election so close to the last one). I'M SO LOST.
GinAg (39)
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I literally don't know. I think the most likely way forward is getting a new leader and then they hold on until late 2023 or early 2024. However the rot has set in and the signals are they've all but given up.
Pingu
Noot noot
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May 2024. There's no way they'll call one before than, it'd be suicide. What actually DOES happen in the intervening 18 months is anybody's guess.
Outside chance that they'll bring someone vaguely unifying or with an outward veneer of competence on board to try and steady the ship and then take a chance on one in Spring 2023, but I think/hope they're past the point of no return now. Last night felt more existential than a Liz Truss thing.
Outside chance that they'll bring someone vaguely unifying or with an outward veneer of competence on board to try and steady the ship and then take a chance on one in Spring 2023, but I think/hope they're past the point of no return now. Last night felt more existential than a Liz Truss thing.
Sheena
ROMANCE
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It'll literally be Suella. She's the only one MAD enough to want it right now and that PALAVER yesterday was blatantly all about distancing herself from the current administration, MARK MY WORDS
ZenGiraffe
Who is SHE though?
Tisch
Spare potatoes
Yeah but on what grounds? They can't just stick someone in they fancy? There has to be a process of some sort?
Or I guess if there's a leadership campaign but only one person puts themselves forward...
Or I guess if there's a leadership campaign but only one person puts themselves forward...
ZenGiraffe
Who is SHE though?
The Prime Minister is whoever has the confidence of the house. The Tory's have a majority. Whatever the Tory party decide is the process, is the process. The 1922 committee could change the rules to whatever they like and that is how the prime minister will be chosen.
Tisch
Spare potatoes
DEMOCRATIC!
What I will never get is - yes that's the technically rules, but the optics would be TERRIBLE... and yet the party would go along with it willingly and even FURTHER damage their reputation? Just WHY?
Tisch
Spare potatoes
Well I know why, because they have little choice but STILL. It doesn't feel good as a voter.
ZenGiraffe
Who is SHE though?
Because they're so fucked right now that riding it out and hoping things will be less bad later is the best option for them. It could genuinely be the difference between them, the Lib Dems, or the SNP being the opposition
Jark
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what else can they do? the options right now are shove someone else into the role and lose face again or literally call a GE and hand power to Labour. which I think there is probably a growing appetite for within the Tory party.
Sheena
ROMANCE
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A sacrificial lamb like Suella is perfect. They know they're not going to win the next election, wasting Penny or Rishi seems a bad idea at this point, let someone like MAD OLD SU take the reins whilst the party tries to regroup in the background.
VoR
Take it or leave it
The thing is, the Tory party themselves are hopelessly divided.
A huge swathe of the Boris Johnson loyalist are point-blank refusing to consider Sunak because they blame him for the former PM's downfall.
Suella is openly gunning for it, but she's widely hated and considered an inept loose cannon by the more moderate wing of the party.
They'll do anything to avoid a GE, but they could well tear themelves apart in the scrap to land on any kind of unity candidate.
A huge swathe of the Boris Johnson loyalist are point-blank refusing to consider Sunak because they blame him for the former PM's downfall.
Suella is openly gunning for it, but she's widely hated and considered an inept loose cannon by the more moderate wing of the party.
They'll do anything to avoid a GE, but they could well tear themelves apart in the scrap to land on any kind of unity candidate.
Madíson
Everything goes up by six
You’re being too generous. A good 100+ of them will just be worried about their own mortgage payments when they lose their seat and discover nobody wants to employ an empty-brained Brexit fanatical who won their seat by luck.
octophone
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@VoR is right on the money - all the smaller factions that come together to form The Conservative Party are at vicious odds and cannot agree - some are furious that the mini-budget has been reversed, most are furious that it ever happened, no-one can agree on a direction and all of them are primarily concerned for their own job, their own position.
GinAg (39)
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He wouldn't win. The Tories still have a 70 seat majority. They're suicidal, but don't have a method to end it all.
dmlaw
Democracy doesn't work
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He wouldn't win. The Tories still have their majority and would band together to avoid losing power if it came down to it.
At the moment, the polls are just too bad for them to hold a General Election because they'd be wiped out. If they could plausibly end up in a situation where Labour only had a tiny majority, they'd probably go for that, but if they might end up with only around 100 MPs then they'll grimly hold on to power, even if they can't decide who specifically should wield that power.