2024 US Presidential Election

It was always possible that her momentum would slow as it gets nearer as that usually happens, but I was hoping that she would continue to grow as a relative newcomer, the way Obama did.

It’s probably now dependent on any events and revelations between now and then.

She’s still up 3 nationally, and the larger polling has her up 5. But state by state is more scary. A lot of her national polling will be boosted by NY and CA, where she is way ahead with large populations but is capped by the electoral college. Trump isn’t as far ahead in TX and FL, which means his national vote is coming from elsewhere. That’s where it’s worrying for swing states.
 
I don’t really trust Polymarket as isn’t that just driven by betting rather than data? If Trump has outperformed the polls in his last two elections it stands to reason that people putting money down would be bullish on him.

But yeah, almost all the swing states are within that margin of error that makes a night of 2016-esque horror far too plausible.
 
Oh is it? I won’t be looking at that again then

I actually find 538 very useful because they amalgamate the polls but they also break them out - some of them are such small samples individually they don’t mean anything. So it’s good to look at the large samples individually and then the combined trend. And of course they do state and national (and senate)
 


I get the inherent troll of casting a gay asian as JD Vance, but on the whole I don't think Bowen Yang is really capturing the slimy malevolence enough.

The Biden bit was funny last week but I already sense they're going to run it into the ground.

Maya as Kamala remains the highlight.
 
Former child star Haley Joel Osment randomly doing JD Vance better than the cast of SNL was presumably not on anybody's bingo card.

 
Can I say something?
Say Something GIF by Halloween
 
I’d let Haley Joel Osment as JD Vance hit it!
What about actual JD Vance? He looks like the time my sister made me let her dye my eyelashes and I looked like I was taking off my drag.
 
Maybe we don’t need to worry about Florida anymore…

 

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