Eurovision 2024: Semi Final One - Who Will Qualify?

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VoR

VoR

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Very likely
Ukraine
Croatia
Lithuania

Probable
Poland
Serbia
Finland
Cyprus

Bubble
Luxembourg
Portugal
Iceland

----

Azerbaijan
Slovenia
Ireland
Australia
Moldova


I'm expecting Luxembourg to close the semi. Not only does it make sense narratively, it's one of the most straightforward uptempo entries in the second half. Surely that or Iceland - which is my reason for possibly controversially putting Hera over the line. She's such a likable and confident performer that I think she can overcome the not-great song, especially if she does end up in a plum position.
 
I think this could go ANYWHERE tbh.

I’m only confident in Lithuania, Ukraine, and Croatia.
 
Australia I think is doomed, but I think you could argue for the rest of them qualifying under certain scenarios.
 
Bit of a MYSTERIOUS GIRL pile-up here with Slovenia, Portugal and Serbia, so I expect one casualty even though I’d like all three to qualify.
 
This semi feels a lot easier to predict tbh!

Nailed on
Croatia
Lithuania
Ukraine

Likely in
Cyprus
Finland
Luxembourg
Poland
Serbia

Borderline
Portugal
Slovenia
———————
Azerbaijan
Ireland

No chance
Australia
Iceland
Moldova
 
The more I think about it, Luxembourg are so closing the semi. Finland and Australia were the semi closers last year and while it's not unheard of for a country to get the same slot twice, Finland will likely have that big egg prop so they'll need a commercial break. They don't tend to like to close with slower entries, which discounts Azerbaijan, Portugal and Slovenia. Moldova doesn't make much impact, so I still think the only other likely option is Iceland. But on reflection I reckon it's more 80-20 than 50-50 that it goes to Luxembourg.
 
I agree that it's very likely Luxembourg gets to perform last, I think they'll want to push them as much as possible to qualify.
 
Poor Ireland. Do we really think Bambie has no chance?
 
The interesting thing about this semi is that it's incredibly top-loaded, with virtually all of the strongest contenders in the first half. There's only been two occasions when more than half of the qualifiers came from the first half of a semi (Weirdly it was both of the semi finals in 2018)

So the strong likelihood is that only five of these can qualify:

Croatia
Cyprus
Ireland
Lithuania
Poland
Serbia
Ukraine

And conversely at least five should (on paper) go through from this lot

Australia
Azerbaijan
Finland
Iceland
Luxembourg
Moldova
Portugal
Slovenia
 
Even in 2018, only 5 from the first half of each semi would have qualified if it had come down to televote only.
 
Which suggests we're likely to get at least one shock exit, let alone making the path for Ireland incredibly narrow.

Croatia and Ukraine are obviously sailing through. Probably Lithuania too. Poland and Serbia very seldom miss on the televote and have some very friendly neighbours in this semi.

I'd worry about Cyprus, but they have a tendency to punch above their weight recently (even Ela made top ten on televote), and it's the only classic uptempo pop banger in the first half.
 
I do wonder if Luxembourg may not make it.

Yes, i know they will have the novelty of "being back etc" but on paper at least it looks totally within the realms of possibility.
 
Probably no idea it has been out for 30 years, unless there is some mention of it on the night. I do think Luxembourg is good enough to scrape a televote top ten though (pending the in-coming re-vamp also) - particularly if it does go on last
 
I do expect most people won't really know or care about their absence (although I do imagine it will be mentioned), but if it's borderline as to whether it qualifies or not, that point of difference may be enough to see it over the line.
 
I think in the finals nobody will care, but the semis are obviously more fan-driven.

I’m still operating on the assumption that they close the semi too. If they get stuck around 9th then I agree they might be in danger.
 
VoR said:
I think in the finals nobody will care, but the semis are obviously more fan-driven.

I’m still operating on the assumption that they close the semi too. If they get stuck around 9th then I agree they might be in danger.
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Surely not many fans are even going to be excited enough about their comeback for that to motivate them to vote for it (apart from the ones weirdly obsessed with microstates at Eurovision).

I agree that they're one of the only songs that works as a semi closer, but then again if they want to make a song and dance about their return then it makes more sense to put them on after a commercial break so they can give them a bit of an intro.
 
If the expectation is that at least four qualifiers need to come from the second half (with Ireland being the one to miss from the first half :(), Luxembourg feel the second most nailed on to me after Finland.

To say this was looking like the stronger semi, I'm now going through and being like, 'we need to take 10 of these songs to the final? really?', and it breaks my heart that Bambie Thug has such an uphill battle to be one of those 10.
 
Confirmed running order



1. Cyprus
2. Serbia
3. Lithuania
4. Ireland

United Kingdom

5. Ukraine
6. Poland
7. Croatia
8. Iceland

Germany

9. Slovenia
10. Finland
11. Moldova

Sweden

12. Azerbaijan
13. Australia
14. Portugal
15. Luxembourg

The expected openers and closers.
 
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They already have a likely 20 point headstart from Croatia and Slovenia so don't feel too sorry for them.
 
The lack of thought given to where to put the pre-qualifiers in both semis other than ‘oh put them there, there and THERE’ is quite funny.
 
First betting odds for qualification are out

1712228257596.png
 
Guess they always underestimate you @BambieThug666
 
I'm surprised Serbia are so high in this. The odds really do think 6/7 coming from the first half are qualifying, and Bambie Thug has now moved up to 11th. Has there ever been a case of the first half providing more qualifiers than the second half before?
 
Karma said:
I'm surprised Serbia are so high in this. The odds really do think 6/7 coming from the first half are qualifying, and Bambie Thug has now moved up to 11th. Has there ever been a case of the first half providing more qualifiers than the second half before?
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They have Croatia, Slovenia, Poland and Ukraine who are likely to give them good points. I think that will be enough to see them through.
 
I’m hopeful Ireland can sneak through but it is hard to see where. If Serbia didn’t have such a favourable draw I would be sending them out.
 
Are Ukraine likely to give Serbia good points? It's one of the most pro-Russian countries going!
 
Serbia or Slovenia out, Australia in would be my guess for where the odds go wrong here.
 
Penelope said:
Serbia or Slovenia out, Australia in would be my guess for where the odds go wrong here.
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I'm obviously very biased since it's my favorite entry, but I really struggle to see Slovenia out. I think it's a more impactful song than Serbia or Portugal, with great potential for staging!
 
Portugal are very likely qualifying on that draw. If they get second half in the final I think top 10 is practically guaranteed.
 
I prefer Serbia (and I’m slightly worried about their draw) but them, Portugal and Slovenia MUST qualify.
 
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