Eurovision 2025: Who is going to win?

[ButterTart]

Can we just let the UK or Germany have it for effort and because we know we'll get a belting show the following year? I really can't stand another month or so of the fan community gaslighting itself into believing Israel, Ukraine, France and Italy are better than they are.

 

[AGinAg (38)]

Who's claiming whiteface and the Inbetweeners?

 

[VoR]

We tend to assume the juries will always go for whoever does the *most* singing, but I'm not sure that's entire borne out by the way they've actually voted in recent years. Austria feels divisive enough to not be a nailed on winner on that front at all.

 

[ButterTart]

We tend to assume the juries will always go for whoever does the *most* singing, but I'm not sure that's entire borne out by the way they've actually voted in recent years. Austria feels divisive enough to not be a nailed on winner on that front at all.

I don't feel like Austria is a bit too gimmicky to be a jury winner. I haven't been that confident since I stated that the juries in 2024 would never be taken in by an all-gimmick, zero-substance shithouse like Switzerland.

 

[GNL]

Austria's vocal is evocative of unboxing things surrounded by polystyrene and nails down a chalkboard. It is evil.

 

[Suomi]

I think Slovenia will do really well as it stands alone amongst all of the - and I struggle to think of a more appropriate word - noise. Its nearest competitor is Netherlands which comes across as a shallow by comparison.

I find the idea of Sweden winning with that song so bizarre that I can’t really compute it - I’m still not over it actually winning Melfest. I like it a lot but in this context it feels like a fun one-night stand turning up at an already unpleasant extended family dinner. Yes, to me KAJ is Glenn Close

I have only ever known Sweden to get their game face on so this is all new territory for me.

Finland, Poland and Albania are the only three I would really love to see win.

 

[Penelope]

I think the bookies are pretty much on the money and it’s between Sweden, Austria and Israel.

Austria: potential runaway jury winner that the public could be lukewarm towards

Sweden: potential televote winner that isn’t traditional jury fodder but could cut through enough

Israel: another potential strong televote that is traditional jury fodder so it’s a question of whether they’ll be marking it down as much this year

Can’t really call it between those three at the moment.

I’d not want yet another Swedish Eurovision so soon, I really don’t care for the Austrian song and the other choice doesn’t really bear thinking about, so I’m all for “honourable mentions” awards for everyone and moving on to 2026.

I will add Finland to this list if they really go for it properly in Basel and elevate it with a Cha Cha Cha level performance.

 

[VoR]

I'm not entirely discounting the possibility of Poland winning based on a wave of mid-00s Eurovision nostalgia and Justyna's own TERRIFYING FORCE OF WILL

 

[AGinAg (38)]

I find the idea of Sweden winning with that song so bizarre that I can’t really compute it - I’m still not over it actually winning Melfest. I like it a lot

This. It feels like they've ditched everything they're known for and gone full light entertainment, and to my surprise, it's effective.

If it wins, which I currently think is most likely, then it wouldn't sit comftably with their previous winners.

 

[MegaDolly]

I don't feel like Austria is a bit too gimmicky to be a jury winner. I haven't been that confident since I stated that the juries in 2024 would never be taken in by an all-gimmick, zero-substance shithouse like Switzerland.

Yes but ‘The Code’ wasn’t all opera and the song has a positive message about finding your identity which apparently juries love. ‘Wasted Love’ has zero substance. Yes his voice is fantastic but he’s a professional opera singer so obviously. Other singers with tons of experience are also great in their respected genres including Louane, Claude and KAJ.

 

[Tetris-Rock]

@Tetris-Rock has noted that Running Scared did piggyback a fair bit on the Glee sound.

Have I?!

 

[Soldi]

The simulator has been updated:

Eurovision 2025 Simulator

Eurovision 2025 Simulator

prof-farnsworth.fr

 

[Soldi]

The simulator has been updated:

Eurovision 2025 Simulator

Eurovision 2025 Simulator

prof-farnsworth.fr

I didn’t toggle with the odds and got a top five of

France - 552
Ukraine - 330
Austria - 318
Sweden - 299
Belgium - 286

 

[Penelope]

Oh that scoreboard simulator is FUN

 

[dmlaw]

The simulator is fun but not terribly reliable. With unadjusted odds, I just got a Sweden win by 100 points and that’s plausible enough. However, they did it by landsliding the juries and then coming narrowly fourth behind France, Austria and Netherlands in the televote, which doesn’t sound like what’s going to happen.

 

[Apoca]

Klara with a K - On and On and On with 631 points.