UK General Election 2024

How are you likely to vote?

  • Conservative

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Green

    Votes: 5 16.1%

  • Labour

    Votes: 19 61.3%

  • Lib Dem

    Votes: 6 19.4%

  • SNP

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Sinn Fein

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • DUP

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Alliance

    Votes: 1 3.2%

  • Ulster Unionist

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Total voters
    31


:basil:

It was an extraordinarily stupid thing to say when you're trying to overtake the SNP. Given us Scots are famously a CALM and PLIANT people
 
Lots of chat about a May election.

It seems to be mostly from Labour in an attempt to humiliate Sunak.

I'm not sure any party 27% behind in the polls has ever called an early GE.
 
GinAg (39) said:
I'm not sure any party 27% behind in the polls has ever called an early GE.
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I go back and forth with this...yes the polls are dire but absolutely nothing is set to improve. Economically the outlook remains very grim and if they cling on until the end of the year there is every chance they could actually get fall further.
 
GinAg (39) said:
Lots of chat about a May election.

It seems to be mostly from Labour in an attempt to humiliate Sunak.

I'm not sure any party 27% behind in the polls has ever called an early GE.
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Unless the POWERS THAT BE secretly want Sunak out and to be able to start again with a "blank slate" as soon as possible.

Though fuck knows how you do that with about 20 seats :D
 
I think if the budget does nothing at all for them in the polls, they'll just go. Sunak's got a whole life of disaster capitalism waiting for him in California and several of the others have their directorships and newspaper columns lined up.
 
At the current pace they'll be the fourth party in Parliament. Maybe third if the SNP have a mare.
 
bypass said:
If Reform actually overtake the Tories in the polls I will almost certainly piss myself
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I won’t. It makes them fucking dangerous and suddenly they have (more of) a seat at the table.
 
We need Reform to take no seats whatsoever. The Tories need to learn that sopping to the far right is what is killing them.

Mind you, we also need Labour to learn that sopping to the centre right is just as bad.
 
I suspect they'll take 1 or 2 at most.

However, it's 2029 we'd need to be worried about. 2024 is all about ground building and looking like they could credibly take seats, which will put many people off voting for them this time around. If they suddenly pop up as a 2nd/3rd place in a few dozen seats, then that will soon change.
 
Also, it's hardly an "early" GE - if they go in May, it's been 4 and a half years. But the Tories do like to hold on when it's going badly.
 
octophone said:
Also, it's hardly an "early" GE - if they go in May, it's been 4 and a half years. But the Tories do like to hold on when it's going badly.
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Exactly, the election would have been May if they hadn't repealed the fixed term parliament act
 
Not sure it's as simple as OH NO REFORM ARE GONNA BE AN ELECTORAL FORCE.

Firstly I doubt they'll win a seat, not sure where they're close. Clacton, somewhere in the north?

Secondly, what will the Conservatives be in 2029? I can only imagine on their second leader who will be a loon or an utter nobody. If it's a loon then that's Reforms purpose neutered. If it's a nobody then yes Reform may well start making in roads.

Thirdly the Tories main goal is to win elections. They will have to tackle Reform somehow. I doubt a party merger will EVER happen. Tories are too proud. I can't imagine the Tories standing aside at constituencies winnable by Reform, but if they do that gives Reform a tremendous amount of power and sway. The UK can tolerate the right, they can tolerate Boris, they couldn't tolerate Liz. Elections are won from the middle (2019 being a rare exception, but of course the Overton Window has been shifted that way). Reform are far from the middle, much like Corbyn was far from the middle. The Tories will eventually realise they need a centrist leader again, and dump Reform.

Reform will flounder under FPTP. At best for them, a weak Lib Dem style showing.

I'm not especially concerned by them and actually welcome their presence. The left has been split for too long, the right split is well overdue.

Besides 5-10 years of Labour in power will hopefully shift the centre point of British politics. This last point is very hopeful and ignores multiple outcomes, nuances, and unforeseen changes of dynamics.
 
Indie said:
I suspect they'll take 1 or 2 at most.

However, it's 2029 we'd need to be worried about. 2024 is all about ground building and looking like they could credibly take seats, which will put many people off voting for them this time around. If they suddenly pop up as a 2nd/3rd place in a few dozen seats, then that will soon change.
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Well, this depends on what the Tories do and, indeed, Labour. If the Tories do what we expect and lean further right with Badenoch, Truss and Braverman etc (should the latter survive a GE), then it becomes a territorial issue between Reform and the Tories. The centre right need somewhere to go and at the moment, they have Labour. But the left are disenfranchised in England but so is the centre left. The whole landscape has been skewed by the media. What would really help would be Murdoch to die and his kids just sell the whole lot off because screw this for a lark.
 
(But she’ll still serve out the rest of the parliament - she’s not triggering a by-election).
 
Christ, they really are caught in a pincer movement now. If you look at the underlying figures they are losing votes to everybody.

OH WELL!
 
bypass said:
Theresa May stepping down before next GE.
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In some ways, the party is barely recognisable from the one she took to the polls in 2017. On the other, her "hostile environment" was a major step on the path they've taken. So, y'know, don't let the door hit yr arse on the way out, eh?
 


He’s basically being held hostage while the outgoing Tory MPs scrabble for post-election jobs. Pathetic.
 
They're going to need to redraw the lines of London to include Kent, Essex, Surrey, and Hartlepool, but I think she can do it.
 
I've just been visited by the Tories (luckily I don't answer the door to TRASH) and it turns out I've been HIVED OFF into a RURAL CONSTITUENCY and the candidate is GYLES FUCKING BRANDRETH'S FUCKING DAUGHTER APHRA!
 
My Facebook feed (and letterbox) has recently been flooded by a candidate for the North Yorkshire mayoral election, a thing I didn't know was happening.

Entirely notable is that is the tory candidate has been heavily funded, but mentions his party absolutely nowhere. It took a bit of digging to find out. Imagine being so ashamed of being part of the government party but too scared to say it. Speaks volumes.

He'll probably win because north Yorkshire, but he's about 25 and I hope he ends up crying into his frosties.
 
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