The Conservatives: The Wilderness Years (1 Viewer)

Penelope said:
IS SHE?!
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Exactly how dumb do you have to be to endure 14 years of the Tories destroying everything and then to allow Labour five months, in which time most of their things haven’t come into force yet, before you say this isn’t working, we need to return to either the Tories or some more racist Tories?
 
Not Kemi Badenoch refusing to identify as Nigerian after self-IDing as an immigrant (from Wimbledon) during her leadership pitch.
 
Home Admlawne 2: dmLawst in New York said:
Exactly how dumb do you have to be to endure 14 years of the Tories destroying everything and then to allow Labour five months, in which time most of their things haven’t come into force yet, before you say this isn’t working, we need to return to either the Tories or some more racist Tories?
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If there is one thing we should have learned from the past 10 years, it's that the typical UK voter is indeed EXCEPTIONALLY dumb

The good news is we still have four years for a few more Tory voters to die of old age and irrelevance
 
To be fair it's not that she's popular, far from it. Most of the general public know nothing about her. The Tories are still polling in the 20s. Reform are nicking votes from the Tories and Labour, and they are the real worry.
 
Who gives a shit about polls? They have four and a half years left with a massive majority.

Thatcher was unpopular until the Falklands War.
 
Not that I expect an upsurge like Thatcher, but when you inherit a horrible economy and make choices that can be easily explained as cruel, of course they appear unpopular.
 
ZenReindeer said:
They don't though. They're on track to lose Wales and underperform in Scotland in a year and a half.
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They're not on track to lose Wales (or at least if they are because of who Plaid are willing to do a deal with, then they always were given the change in voting system there and what that's always been set to do in terms of putting Labour in much more of a minority position there on seats).
 
ZenReindeer said:
If you are polling in third place and get gubbed in two national elections, I wouldn't feel very confident in remaining Labour leader.
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I don't care about the leader particularly, I just want the Tories out of power, with a party to the left in charge.

Please don't start a debate on Labour not really being left thanks.
 
ZenReindeer said:
If you are polling in third place and get gubbed in two national elections, I wouldn't feel very confident in remaining Labour leader.
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Labour doesn't really have much of a history - or many easy mechanisms - for ousting leaders. We're not the Tory Party.
 
ZenReindeer said:
https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2024...ing-poll-with-reform-uk-matching-labour-votes

Behind Plaid, so depending on how that models to seats would lose the FM
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Yeah, basically every Welsh election going is a story of Labour going into it with all the forecasts saying they'll get gubbed, and then that not really actually happening on the day. They'll probably have their worst result since the Senedd was created, but there's a much stronger likelihood of them still finishing top on votes than it might seem (or indeed than they were likely headed for under Vaughan Gething, before Starmer even became PM).
 
Anyway - I'd say the dynamic that's likely to be forced upon the UK under Trump probably isn't the most favourable one for Scottish Labour heading into the Scottish elections, but also they're still a way off so I wouldn't really count any chickens before they're hatched on that front.
 
RimfrostVoR said:
I can't see Labour ousting Keir this cycle unless things got really, really, like Liz Truss levels of dire.
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I dunno, I think given the direction of travel in European elections, and the cost the democrats had in not replacing their "leader" earlier (regardless of the fact that they absolutely do not have a mechanism to impose a change anyway), I could see Labour MPs being a bit more trigger happy two years out from a general if things were looking bad.
 
People love overanalysing and overextrapolating from America - a country with a pretty rigid and polarised two party system where it really is panic stations territory if you're 4-5 points down six months before an election.

Midterm blues are entirely normal here and most governments (at least, most governments that haven't been in for ages) come back from them the closer things get to an election, not least when they're doing consciously less popular measures that they think will pay off in the long run, if the underlying sentiment hasn't totally broken against them (it's usually really obvious when that's happened - think Boris after Partygate, Liz Truss, or where things really obviously were for Rishi after about nine months in). Labour's just not even remotely near that point yet.
 
DJ Play Ag Christmas Song (39) said:
Not everything is drama.
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100%. The last 8 years have really, really conditioned a lot of people to think of it as a default mode. In fairness it was pretty much the state of play for so much of that time. But there's a government with 400 seats and a massive majority in, and not really much in the way of any signs of a big internal split in it yet. Incumbency is quite a powerful thing, and the Tories were fundamentally limited towards the end by the fact they were just fixated on entirely the wrong things to help them get out of their situation. Labour have just done a Budget putting £70 billion more into public services. That's probably going to reap some returns.
 
ZenReindeer said:
That assumes that 2024 is a blip and not the new normal, globally, of course.
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The massive wave of incumbents getting ousted pretty much started happening from 2023 following inflation (now mostly tamed by) / the secular global rise in interest rates (set to come down over the next 5 years - but no guarantee of course). People don't like it when prices go up a lot, and in particular mortgage holders (often swing voters) don't like it when their monthly payments go up a lot. No shit.
 
Of course, Trump could really make things worse over the next 4 years depending on how hard he goes with tariffs and exactly who/where gets targeted most by them. But it's worth remembering that the next UK election will be after his second term has finished. (Obviously all bets are off if it hasn't finished.)
 
I also just can't see where the credible internal challenge to Starmer would come from. The left are much diminished post Corbyn, and there's no other real block or individual the party could potentially rally around. I know the PLP are a basket of snakes, but they seem to be his basket of snakes for now, and even if they go against him in the future, it's hard to see a figure they'd coalesce around successfully.

I mean they're hardly going to have much luck pushing DOWNING STREETING.
 
RimfrostVoR said:
I also just can't see where the credible internal challenge to Starmer would come from. The left are much diminished post Corbyn, and there's no other real block or individual the party could potentially rally around. I know the PLP are a basket of snakes, but they seem to be his basket of snakes for now, and even if they go against him in the future, it's hard to see a figure they'd coalesce around successfully.

I mean they're hardly going to have much luck pushing DOWNING STREETING.
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Don't you think he looks tired boring
 
RimfrostVoR said:
I also just can't see where the credible internal challenge to Starmer would come from. The left are much diminished post Corbyn, and there's no other real block or individual the party could potentially rally around. I know the PLP are a basket of snakes, but they seem to be his basket of snakes for now, and even if they go against him in the future, it's hard to see a figure they'd coalesce around successfully.

I mean they're hardly going to have much luck pushing DOWNING STREETING.
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The next leadership election feels at this time like it'll be a clear straight fight between Rayner and Streeting, but also I can't really see either of them challenging Starmer for that to happen - or at least, I can't see Streeting doing it without making his own grave.
 
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