Turkish Election

[GinAg (39)]

Erdogan currently winning.

No return to Eurovision anytime soon then.

 

[VoR]

*sigh*

 

[auretz]

I believe the first set of results are from the most pro-Erdogan part of the country so it’s too early to conclude much (hopefully!)

 

[RaspberrySwirl]

How can he still win after all he’s done to their economy?

Apparently turnout is very high so hopefully it’s good news for the opposition.

 

[win_the_game]

I believe the first set of results are from the most pro-Erdogan part of the country so it’s too early to conclude much (hopefully!)

Yes the cities and large urban areas are the last to announce their results.

The opposition have released their own figures based on the count so far in Istanbul, where they think they are ahead 51% to Erdogan’s 43%.

 

[auretz]

 

[Saltwater]

How can he still win after all he’s done to their economy?

Apparently turnout is very high so hopefully it’s good news for the opposition.

The opposition is a really old grandpa. They could have had a younger sexier guy leading but he was trialed for insulting president just before the election and not allowed to run for the office

 

[RaspberrySwirl]

It’s not like Erdogan is young either

 

[Dark Carnival]

Hmmmfff

 

[GinAg (39)]

I've just found out that Erdogan released an album

 

[Saltwater]

It’s not like Erdogan is young either

Yes obv, but it does add to the feeling that either way there's not a modern alternative proposal available

 

[Saltwater]

Current percentages at 56% counted

 

[Saltwater]

 

[Penelope]

Erdoğan is not winning clearly by any means. Cruising for a really, really tight result - he's *supposed* to be ahead in the places that have announced already, but his margins there are shit compared to last time.

 

[Penelope]

Turkey's online election results website has gone offline though

 

[Saltwater]

Am curious to see the map with the regions, i remember opposition was strong in Istanbul, Smyrna and the rest of the western coast last time

 

[RaspberrySwirl]

Am curious to see the map with the regions, i remember opposition was strong in Istanbul, Smyrna and the rest of the western coast last time

Smyrna

 

[Saltwater]

Smyrna

Am terrible with the new names don't make me google, you know which one

 

[Saltwater]

If this is accurate, not much of a change

 

[Dark Carnival]

Looks like it’s going to be a run off.

 

[VoR]

Who is that more likely to benefit?

 

[Dark Carnival]

I'm guessing this is a boost to the opposition, with Erdogan not being able to get it done in one round.

 

[Penelope]

If this is accurate, not much of a change

How on earth is it not much of a change when you consider the BIGGEST CITY and entire coastline are in there?

 

[Penelope]

 

[RaspberrySwirl]

Just read the same in the news here; pro-opposition ballots are appealed against by AKP and not counted for now it seems.

 

[Penelope]

I don't quite see what the practical end goal is from that sort of strategy by AKP. It smacks of the sort of stuff Trump was doing in Pennsylvania et al where it just delayed the inevitable, except it isn't even remotely plausible to sell a 'stop the steal' strategy when you've been in charge for 20 years.

 

[Saltwater]

How on earth is it not much of a change when you consider the BIGGEST CITY and entire coastline are in there?

They are not considered strongholds and considering everything they were expected to turn.

 

[auretz]

A run-off seems likely.

 

[Saltwater]

Turkey's online election results website has gone offline though

And is still offline all this time

 

[Funky]

Doesn't NATO and the EU have rules on its member states interfering in its own elections?

 

[Saltwater]

 

[VoR]

Same guy now pretty much accepting that it's over and Erdogan will ultimately take it

 

[RaspberrySwirl]

Well, it’s over

 

[Christian]

Well that’s rotten news.

 

[VoR]

It must be so demoralising for young people to have their hopes constantly thwarted by these corrupt cunts.

 

[Saltwater]

Our turn now.
I've decided to abstain though cause there's no point.

 

[Penelope]

Big developments in the last day! It's looking like there were clear AKP electoral fraud efforts - things like improbably high 95%+ turnout levels in areas hit hardest by the recent earthquake (which implies a lot of dead registered voters ended up using their votes ), and transparently fishy polling station level results, like big 50%+ vote hauls for the AKP + far-right nationalist anti-Kurdish MHP party in Kurdish areas - coincidentally often coming from ballot boxes reporting 95-98% turnout levels The radical nationalist third placed candidate also appears to be potentially on the verge of endorsing Kılıçdaroğlu in the runoff.



No guarantees of that meaning the second round will definitely turn out well, of course. Erdoğan got 49.5% in the 'official' vote count, but even if that's inflated, he still has a couple of points of potential leeway if far-right MHP voters turn out for him in the runoff regardless of who the party candidate endorses.

But the last time the AKP ended up being toppled - the Istanbul mayoral election re-run ordered by the Supreme Court after the opposition CHP candidate won narrowly the first time, with the CHP winning in a landslide the second time around - the big swing to the opposition between the two results was driven hugely by the widespread sense that the AKP was resorting to active foul play in clear sight to keep its hold on power. So far, this is probably the one set of circumstances that could plausibly turn things around from a first round result that bad for the opposition into a potential second round win.

 

[RaspberrySwirl]

If only they could repeat that Istanbul miracle!

The parliament election is all done though, isn’t it?

 

[Penelope]

The parliament election is all done though, isn’t it?

Sort of. The deadlilne for the YSK to officially certify final results isn't until the 19th, and legal challenges (there are a lot) against ballot box irregularities seem to be still be being processed and actually flipping seat results to the opposition parties. I imagine it'll still end up with the AKP and MHP still having a majority of the seats combined at the end of it, but Erdogan pushed through a lot more powers being centralised in the presidency and split cohabitation results aren't that rare in practice really.

 

[GinAg (39)]

Second round results COMING SOON