2020 USA Presidential Elections

Four more years?

  • Total voters
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Jark said:
Can Biden actually lose if he wins Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and, let's say, North Carolina? *runs to 538*
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Trump's odds of winning go through the floor if Biden wins Pennsylvania. If Biden wins North Carolina too he's completely toast.
 
Dark Carnival said:
Just because it's not a Republican landslide each time doesn't make it an actual swing state. It's frankly all just very wishful thinking. Even states like Louisiana and Missouri have gone bleu more recently. There may be a trend of it shifting slightly to the the left due to demographic changes. I say give it a decade or two, but for now it remains a safe Republican state.
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Texas is a swing state in this election on the basis that it's competitive between the two candidates. Its certainly not by any means a safe Republican state this year!

I mean put it this way - 538 has it about four times more likely that Biden will win Texas than that Trump will win the election *full stop*.
 
The voter suppression was of course permitted by a Republican majority SCOTUS.

Biden simply must flood SCOTUS.
 
Ag said:
The voter suppression was of course permitted by a Republican majority SCOTUS.

Biden simply must flood SCOTUS.
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This is a major part of the overall situation. A Biden win still leaves a Trump-packed Supreme Court. There's no sigh of relief just at a Biden win, there so much more to do.
 
octophone said:
This is a major part of the overall situation. A Biden win still leaves a Trump-packed Supreme Court. There's no sigh of relief just at a Biden win, there so much more to do.
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Of course it's entirely possible that such rules could come and bite Republicans in the arse.
 
Ag said:
Was it not renewed under Trump or just been damaged beyond function?
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In 2013 the Supreme Court removed the provisions in the original 1965 Voting Rights Act that stopped southern states from fucking around and doing things that made it harder for black people to vote, because they said we were clearly "in a different era" and it had been long enough that it was no longer justifiable legally to treat states differently. And wouldn't you guess what happened the second the provisions were lifted :eyes:
 
Iguana said:
I can't help but think about how there were articles at the time about Clinton focussing on where the Dems could make inroads in future years, they were that confident of victory. And then the local results in places she should have won were surprising - she not only didn't make those inroads, but she also didn't pay enough attention to her core base. Has Biden been focussing on his core vote base or has he adopted a similar strategy? I guess it's a bit less relevant this time round due to Covid restrictions
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He seems to be playing a more cautious game than Clinton. He's been notably campaigning much less than Trump in general because, y'know, NEARLY DEAD. But he seems to have put more time into the rust belt and states he has a very good chance of flipping/holding, while sending Kamala and Obama to a few of the more ambitious targets.
 
Surely APPLY IT TO ALL FUCKING STATES.

Leaving states to decide their own voting rules is a shitting nonsense.
 
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Another positive is that this year feels likely to be a Democratic wave year in the same way 2010 was a big Republican wave year, and redistricting happens every ten years. They were able to do so much gerrymandering because they won big ten years ago.

The more internal state elections the Democrats win (House of Representatives elections at the state level, rather than the national House of Representatives), the more the Democrats will be able to put in fair electoral boundaries/fuck over the Republicans and just gerrymander the boundaries back (after the last ten years WHO CARES!)
 
Penelope said:
Texas is a swing state in this election on the basis that it's competitive between the two candidates. Its certainly not by any means a safe Republican state this year!

I mean put it this way - 538 has it about four times more likely that Biden will win Texas than that Trump will win the election *full stop*.
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But that’s just comparing two incomparable things, comparing the odds in one state to the much more complex combined outcome of the whole country with quite frankly endless possibilities. Besides, either way this only proves how little Trump’s odds are of winning the whole thing (according to 538) rather than how big Biden’s are of flipping Texas.
 
Dark Carnival said:
But that’s just comparing two incomparable things, comparing the odds in one state to the much more complex combined outcome of the whole country with quite frankly endless possibilities. Besides, either way this only proves how little Trump’s odds are of winning the whole thing (according to 538) rather than how big Biden’s are of flipping Texas.
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I mean, they're comparable in the sense of the odds of any two things happening are comparable. The results of a state election are themselves the complex combined outcome of all the counties of a state with quite frankly endless (but not actually that endless in practice) possibilities.
 
Penelope said:
I mean, they're comparable in the sense of the odds of any two things happening are comparable. The results of a state election are themselves the complex combined outcome of all the counties of a state with quite frankly endless (but not actually that endless in practice) possibilities.
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Even so, you’re still comparing two tiny possibilities. One being more likely than the other doesn’t necessarily even bring it close to happening.
 
Anyone wanting to get into the mood for this I strongly recommend watching Election Night Part 1 and 2, season 7 of the West Wing

I think it’s on All4 atm

doesn’t matter if you don’t know the characters, it’s the best dramatisation of a US election you’ll ever see
 
New Yougov/CBS poll

Early voters:

66% Biden
32% Trump

Planning to vote on the day:

27% Biden
69% Trump

Christ Tuesday is going to be SO stressful...
 
VoR said:
New Yougov/CBS poll

Early voters:

66% Biden
32% Trump

Planning to vote on the day:

27% Biden
69% Trump

Christ Tuesday is going to be SO stressful...
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Which is probably good for Biden. It's likely well over half of the votes have been cast
 
Ag said:
Which is probably good for Biden. It's likely well over half of the votes have been cast
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Oh sure, but I’ll still be BRICKING IT if there’s massive turnout on the day.
 
I remember #YouthQuake trending last December :(
 
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VoR said:
New Yougov/CBS poll

Early voters:

66% Biden
32% Trump

Planning to vote on the day:

27% Biden
69% Trump

Christ Tuesday is going to be SO stressful...
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which I know we denounced that article a few pages back, but it was exactly what it was saying sadly :(
 
I know I’m coming across as a bit of a miserable Mary in this thread, obvs hoping and praying that Biden wins but I really am just trying to keep my own expectations in check
 
Despite thinking Trump will win, the anxiety I feel now that we’re getting close to voting day is killing me. It’s too exciting. I wish I didn’t care.
 
I think I'll be able to just about accept and make peace with a legitimate Trump win in a "they can have what they voted for" kind of way. If it turns out that RIGGERY wins it for him, that's another story.
 
octophone said:
2 hours? Good grief, the longest it has ever taken me to vote is about 2 minutes!
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I've never waited more than half an hour before this year.

It is completely unacceptable though. My roommate waited more than 5 hours in the primary, and I know people who waited up to 8.
 
The Guardian now reporting that Trump plans to declare victory at the earliest opportunity to reframe the fight and take control of the narrative even if he ends up losing.

So basically if Florida and Ohio go his way, he’ll probably declare victory there and then and things will get VERY ugly.
 
VoR said:
The Guardian now reporting that Trump plans to declare victory at the earliest opportunity to reframe the fight and take control of the narrative even if he ends up losing.

So basically if Florida and Ohio go his way, he’ll probably declare victory there and then and things will get VERY ugly.
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The best bet will be if a major swing state can be called for Biden early, so the media will be able to call Trump out on that.
 
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It makes me very angry and upset that we’ve allowed the world to reach this point. That someone like Trump with all his narcissism and ignorance and being an all round liability can be in this position of power and get away with behaving the way he is. The world’s most powerful country the closest it’s been to civil war since the actual civil war, and all because some old rich man with behavioural problems decided he would become president, because he could.

i struggle with the notion that the world is moving backwards. I swear it didn’t feel that way until about five years ago.
 
It’s still not him that I blame and hate the most, but mostly all the evil bastards around him that enable him.
 
No, the problem will always boil down to lack of education. There is no way an intelligent group of people would vote for him. Socrates warned about this exact thing 2400 years ago.
 
Trump really is more of a symptom rather than the disease itself, but it's definitely a symptom that needs to be treated before anything else can happen. Not that I'm too confident anything else WILL happen under a President Biden - I fear we're about to get four years of people "going back to brunch" and forgetting about politics, before getting completely destroyed by whatever the right has in store for 2024. I feel like a broken record and I honestly don't post things like this to get people down - I just don't have any faith in the Democrats and their standard brand of liberalism to be effective against the rise of fascism, which I worry will keep growing (maybe even faster when in opposition).
 
They need to teach populism in every school and university until they weed it out. It’s a poison. It’s always been there, but social media has given it a new lease of life.
 
COB said:
Trump really is more of a symptom rather than the disease itself, but it's definitely a symptom that needs to be treated before anything else can happen. Not that I'm too confident anything else WILL happen under a President Biden - I fear we're about to get four years of people "going back to brunch" and forgetting about politics, before getting completely destroyed by whatever the right has in store for 2024. I feel like a broken record and I honestly don't post things like this to get people down - I just don't have any faith in the Democrats and their standard brand of liberalism to be effective against the rise of fascism, which I worry will keep growing (maybe even faster when in opposition).
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It’s just that there is no realistic alternative (yet).
 
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