Scottish politics thread (including 2021 Holyrood elections, potential IndyRef2, and SNP leadership contest)

It’s supposedly related to internal arguments over the direction Sturgeon has taken the party. He is one of her big supporters.

Not sure why they would want to undermine Nicola - she’s probably their biggest asset and I don’t see any natural successors when she goes.
 
More from that polling.



First Yes lead outside the margin of error for a good while now :disco:

And it is polling taking into account the defacto referendum gambit too.

(Also a reminder not to trust seat projections in Scotland using UK polling, which often have Labour winning a few seats up here, rather than just 2)

 
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Labour will not win 'just 2' seats in Scotland next time if we win a majority/close to a majority across the UK, and you can take that to the bank. We managed 7 on the 2017 result for crying out loud.
 
Penelopezer Scrooge said:
Labour will not win 'just 2' seats in Scotland next time if we win a majority/close to a majority across the UK, and you can take that to the bank. We managed 7 on the 2017 result for crying out loud.
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No, I don't think they'll do as badly as 2, but I would probably bet around the 4 or 5 mark atm. Scottish polls tend to overestimate SNP seats, and UK wide polls underestimate them, so somewhere in the middle (though leaning towards the Scottish polls) tends to be a safeish guess.
 
The final debate on Gender Recognition Reform is starting shortly, with the final vote tomorrow. I will try and tune in to the debate as it is controversial, and whilst it is still expected to pass, we might have a significant SNP rebellion in the process, and opposition MSPs have some potential wrecking amendments that could make it incompatible with human rights law.

Then even if it does pass without these amendments, the UK government might still try and strike it down because they just plain don't like it, which will be a shitshow if they do so. Especially if they just have Westminster legislate reactively to stop it, which after the court case results the other month, probably won't help the unionist cause.
 
The Tories attempts to filibuster have been an absolute disgrace. Their mixture of hypocrisy and populism is so bitterly toxic.

Lovely to see them fail but much lovelier to see the bill pass.

I'm sure the usual papers will be full of lies and scare stores tomorrow and I'm sure 🎹🍒 will be leading the legal attack. But for now, a moment of relief that things could actually get better.
 
Looks like it's going to be blocked properly, which is a gift to Independence Supporters, (and a nightmare for trans people, obviously)

https://news.sky.com/story/rishi-sunak-poised-to-block-scotlands-gender-reform-bill-12786178

I'll be curious of the result of the legal challenge that will inevitably follow, which might be even more damning for the union, even if found lawful, in the same way that the independence court case the other month seems to have bolstered independence support.
 
I’ll be amused if this is what turns my Indy-fanatic dad into a full-blown trans ally.

I see Starmer has also expressed ‘concerns’ - have any of these people done a cost-benefit analysis on this? How many cis people’s votes are guided by this issue?
 
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You'd think they'd look at the recent US midterms for guidance - didn't the Republicans make gender/culture war stuff a big part of their campaigning and end up totally EATING SHIT? They're just going to alienate people with this, I think.
 
COB said:
You'd think they'd look at the recent US midterms for guidance - didn't the Republicans make gender/culture war stuff a big part of their campaigning and end up totally EATING SHIT? They're just going to alienate people with this, I think.
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To be honest I think that was a LOT more to do with the end of Roe vs. Wade than the war on trans people (although I cannot bring myself to follow US politics that closely these days so I might be wrong.)

I feel like the UK and US are very different places when it comes to trans issues even then. I think the one thing i’m fairly confident on is that only a tiny proportion of people actually care about this issue enough for it to guide their vote. That tiny cohort being trans people themselves and a handful of allies, and the small, loud and completely mental group of terfs that our politicians are falling over themselves to win over.

The move by the Tories to block the bill is one of a party that is desperate and completely out of ideas.
 
Come on ZG let's get some hacksaws and start cutting along the border, I reckon we can get FLOATING AWAY after a couple of hours' work.
 
Some people should just mind their own business. It will happen eventually - never can, never will, can't hold us down. What!
 


The SNP using it as a "political football" apparently :eyes:
 
Starmer is a fucking clown, imagine not only rolling over for the fascists on this but AGREEING WITH THEM. Fuck him!
 
Yeah I'm appalled at Starmer. I'll still vote Labour with the best hope a Labour majority would provide equality regardless of the leader.
 
Absolutely fucking livid about this

I can’t believe it doesn’t have to at least be debated in the Commons!?
 
Massive win for Scottish independence

If they can’t get laws through via their own devolved powers then fuck the union
 
Absolutely bang on point from Paul Sweeney MSP here:



They couldn’t do a legal challenge because any judge worth their salt would show that there is absolutely no conflict with the Equality Act and in turn destroy the GC’s crutch of protecting women’s spaces.

Edit: looking at Twitter, there is grounds for the Scottish Government to challenge this and thus teasing out of the legals could still occur.
 
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